NEW POLLS SHOW GOP HOPE IN DEM SENATE STRONGHOLDS – AT 7:50 A.M. ET:  New polling has boosted Republican hopes of upsets in two of the states Michael Barone (see post just below) is giving to the Dems in Senate races.

The RealClearPolitics analysis has moved Connecticut and Washington state into the "toss-up" column.  In both states the GOP challenger is making steady progress, although still behind.  I might add that sketchy polling also points to a possible, although improbable upset in New York States, where appointed Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is turning in a sub-par performance against a retired GOP congressman, Joe DioGuardi.  Gillibrand could walk down most streets in the state, and no one would know who she is.   

But the RealClearPolitics map also shows potential danger for Republicans.  RCP has six seats now listed as toss-ups.  If there's a Dem surge toward the end, and many in the mainstream media will work hard to make it so, Republicans can lose all six, meaning only minimal gains in the new Senate.   While I doubt such an extreme result,  an October surprise could produce it. 

Fight as if you're 20 points behind.

September 29, 2010